Welcome to Depletion Curve
The concept of a “depletion curve” represents one of the most fundamental yet frequently misunderstood aspects of our global energy system. Unlike renewable resources, fossil fuels—oil, natural gas, and coal—exist in finite quantities that, once consumed, cannot be replaced on any timescale relevant to human civilization.
Why This Matters
Every barrel of oil, cubic foot of natural gas, and ton of coal extracted follows a predictable pattern: production increases, reaches a peak, and then enters terminal decline. This pattern—the depletion curve—has profound implications for:
- Economic systems built on assumptions of perpetual growth
- Food production dependent on fossil fuel inputs
- Transportation networks designed around liquid fuels
- Industrial processes requiring high-energy density sources
- Geopolitical stability in regions dependent on resource extraction
Beyond Ideology
This site approaches resource depletion not as a political position but as a physical reality that transcends traditional ideological boundaries. Our analysis draws from:
- Historical production data
- Energy return on investment (EROI) calculations
- Systems thinking and complexity science
- Economics
Navigating This Site
Whether you’re new to these concepts or deeply familiar with resource depletion issues, you’ll find valuable resources organized into key sections:
- Fundamentals: Core concepts of resource depletion and energy systems
- Energy: Broad analysis of energy transitions and constraints
- Oil, Gas, and Coal: Detailed examination of specific fossil fuels
- Reference: Data, charts, and technical resources
- Links: Curated external resources for further exploration
A Starting Point, Not a Conclusion
The depletion curve isn’t just about constraints—it’s about understanding the realistic parameters within which we must face the future. By acknowledging these physical realities, we can make more informed decisions about what wealth will mean in the future.
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”
— Albert A. Bartlett