PRIMEARY TIMELINE

To 1530 Warfare mostly the same To 1850 Buildings mostly the same To 1850 Most energy humans, animals, wind, water Post 1850 Steam Energy: factories, mills, railroads, ships. Fueled with wood and coal. Post 1900: Electrification (By the late 1920s, about 70% of American homes were electrified) Post 1940s: Diesel, railroads, trucking, shipping.

Coal/Oil/Gas isn’t an invention, they are discoveries Nuclear is an important invention but DANGEROUS and COMPLEX

Compressing heat into time is overlooked.

INDUSTRIAL From 1850: Depends on coal, oil and gas. (and hydro and nuclear but they are difficult to run and increase)
NO NEW REPLACEMENT SOURCE OF ENERGY–high energy/weight–HAS BEEN FOUND!

HOME HEATING To 1880: Wood To 1930: Coal (steam engine makes possible) To 1960: Oil or Gas From 1980: Gas (some Electric in warmer climates) From 2016: Solar-voltaic become economically feasible

PERSONAL ENERGY USE o. Solar/Wind for electronics and EVs. 20% of energy use (at best)

CO2 - Climate Change is Destroying What Was Built! 1980: ~338 ppm 1990: ~354 ppm 2000: ~369 ppm 2010: ~389 ppm 2020: ~412 ppm 2025 (current): ~420 ppm

The U.S. will fall the hardest. The U.S. 15 barrel oil/year; EU 12; Japan 10.

Most oil fields are in a decline. Gas production is increasing but individual fields decline like oil, worse if shale. Enhanced recovery systems for both oil and gas have sharper decline rates than old/easy sources. Our energy economy is based on growth. If it goes into decline a large amount of debt will default as it won’t get the energy it needs to pay it off.

IGNORANCE o. That there are significant undiscovered coal/gas/oil deposits o. That sources, “wells” of coal/gas/oil are limitless–none are. Estimates are the 75% are in decline; fortunately, the smaller ones. All will run out eventually. o. That replacement oil/gas can be created artificially through solar. o. That all resources take more energy to mine as time goes on meaning we acquire let net-energy per person. o. That coal/gas/oil has the same quality throughout the mining process (instead, it gets worse in equality) o. That electricity can replace coal/oil/gas for all applications–like aircraft, shipping, new steel making, etc. o. That solar/wind can push past the limiting factor of inexpensive and deep electricity storage. o. That when energy, technology doesn’t have the final say on what can be done, physics does.

TRAGIC DELUSIONS o. That there is enough oil/gas reserves for the young to live like we have. o. That the longer we wait to cut back the more who will die. o. That solar/wind can replace coal/oil/gas in industrial, transportation, farming, construction materials, etc., and military uses.

COUNTER ARGUMENTS o. Never say Never. o. Might be 200 years from now. o. They might be keeping some potential energy source a secret o. It might be easy to give up our militaries and big things like cars and big homes. o. New technology will solve these problems. o. Since Malthus, something has always saved humanity

ELECTRICITY LIMITATION

o. 1530: While warfare evolved continuously, the 1500s marked a revolutionary transition where gunpowder weapons and associated tactics created a fundamental break from the predominantly muscle-powered combat systems that had dominated warfare since ancient times. o. 1861 (U.S. Civil War): railroad, iron warships, rifled weapons, the Gatling Gun (invented 1861), telegraph (1850 widespread adoption). Similar wars: Crimean War (1853-1856), Austro-Prussian (1866), Franco-Prussian (1870-1871)

Historian James McPherson noted that “The war was won by railroad and telegraph as much as by men and guns.” The railroad’s role in the Civil War represented the first large-scale demonstration of how industrial transportation technology could fundamentally alter warfare by enabling sustained mass armies over vast geographic areas.

STEEL Bessemer Process (1855) - method allowed for mass production of steel by removing impurities from pig iron using oxidation. It dramatically reduced steel production costs and increased availability for both weapons and construction. Followed by Open Hearth Furnaces (1860s)

The ability to mass-produce steel (vs. small batches of crucible steel) was the true revolution. Moving from iron to affordable steel was the fundamental leap. The shift from load-bearing masonry to steel frames was the architectural breakthrough.