PRIMEARY TIMELINE
Oil and natural gas formed primarily from the remains of marine organisms that lived approximately 10 to 400 million years ag- Under specific conditions of high heat, pressure and encapsulating rock formations, it took tens of millions of years for oil be fully formed.
It's estimated that there are 3.2 trillion barrels of oil buried at various spots on Earth and that's we've gone through half. We consume 100 million of barrels a day. (Aviation consumes 300 million gallons of jet fuel daily)
We have NO PRACTICAL REPLACEMENT. We can only create oil hydrocarbons in small amounts--nothing remotely close to what we use today.
- To 1530 Warfare mostly the same
- To 1850 Buildings mostly the same
- To 1850 Most energy humans, animals, wind, water
- Post 1850 Steam Energy: factories, mills, railroads, ships. Fueled with wood and coal.
- Post 1900: Electrification (By the late 1920s, about 70% of American homes were electrified)
- Post 1940s: Diesel, railroads, trucking, shipping.
Coal/Oil/Gas isn't an invention, they are FUEL discovered. (Nuclear is an important technology but DANGEROUS and COMPLEX)
Compressing heat into time is overlooked.
The CRUCIAL Engines: Piston, Turbine and Electric Motor
INDUSTRIAL From 1850: Depends on coal, oil and gas. (and hydro and nuclear but they are difficult to run and increase)
NO NEW REPLACEMENT SOURCE OF ENERGY--high energy/weight--HAS BEEN FOUND!
HOME HEATING
- To 1880: Wood
- To 1930: Coal (steam engine makes possible)
- To 1960: Oil or Gas
- From 1980: Gas (some Electric in warmer climates)
- From 2016: Solar-voltaic become economically feasible
PERSONAL ENERGY USE
- Solar/Wind for electronics and EVs. 20% of energy use (at best)
CO2 - Climate Change is Destroying What Was Built! 1980: ~338 ppm 1990: ~354 ppm 2000: ~369 ppm 2010: ~389 ppm 2020: ~412 ppm 2025 (current): ~420 ppm
The U.S. will fall the hardest. The U.S. 15 barrel oil/year; EU 12; Japan 10.
Most oil fields are in a decline. Gas production is increasing but individual fields decline like oil, worse if shale.
Enhanced recovery systems for both oil and gas have sharper decline rates than old/easy sources.
Our energy economy is based on growth. If it goes into decline a large amount of debt will default as it won't get the energy it needs to pay it off.
IGNORANT BELIEFS
- That there are significant undiscovered coal/gas/oil deposits
- That sources, "wells" of coal/gas/oil are limitless--none are. Estimates are the 75% are in decline; fortunately, the smaller ones. All will run out eventually.
- That replacement oil/gas can be created artificially through solar.
- That all resources take more energy to mine as time goes on meaning we acquire let net-energy per person.
- That coal/gas/oil has the same quality throughout the mining process (instead, it gets worse in equality)
- That electricity can replace coal/oil/gas for all applications--like aircraft, shipping, new steel making, etc.
- That solar/wind can push past the limiting factor of inexpensive and deep electricity storage.
- That when energy, technology doesn't have the final say on what can be done, physics does.
TRAGIC DELUSIONS
- That there is enough oil/gas reserves for the young to live like we have.
- That the longer we wait to cut back the more who will die.
- That solar/wind can replace coal/oil/gas in industrial, transportation, farming, construction materials, etc., and military uses.
COUNTER ARGUMENTS
- Never say Never.
- Might be 200 years from now.
- They might be keeping some potential energy source a secret
- It might be easy to give up our militaries and big things like cars and big homes.
- New technology will solve these problems.
- Since Malthus, something has always saved humanity
AXIOMS
- The Earth's climate was too cold and variable for humans to do scientific study until 11,000 years ago
- All high-energy content fossil fuels took millions of years to form.
- There is a limited supply of fossil fuels.
- High energy uses burn through it quicker and it takes more and more burning to mine and process lower quality and harder to mine sources.
- Population is a function energy and fertilizers from fossil fuels.
ELECTRICITY LIMITATION
- Transportation fuels: Gasoline contains about 46 MJ/kg compared to even the best batteries at 0.5-0.9 MJ/kg (~50x difference). This explains why electric aviation and long-haul shipping remain so challenging.
- Industrial processes: The high energy density of fossil fuels enables intense heating for steel production, cement manufacturing, and chemical processing in compact spaces.
- Intermittency, storage limitations, land use.